Romney Wins in a Landslide (at Least in Israel): What it Means

Via Peter

 

On the election map, the State of Israel is not just blue and white; it is solidly red.

The Presidential election results are in.  Well, at least the votes from Americans in Israel.  Not one to keep readers in suspense, I’ll reveal the most important numbers up front: Gov. Mitt Romney received 85%–85%!–of the vote; President Obama managed only 14.3%.  This,  according to exit polling just released by iVoteIsrael, the non-partisan group promoting and facilitating voting by U.S. citizens currently in Israel.  Their statistics reveal some fascinating results.  More importantly, these results have implications for the outcome of next week’s election.  (Again, not to keep you in suspense: those implications favor the Republicans.)

First, that 85% should be seen in a broader perspective.  Israel has become a “red state” through such a solidly Republican vote.  In fact, if Israel were in the United States, it would be the “reddest” state in the entire country.  Redder, even, than Utah, or Wyoming or Oklahoma.  Significantly redder.  That should be a startling development for the Democrats, who once owned the pro-Israel vote.

Second, that 14% for Obama is 40% lower than the vote he received from Israel in 2008.  That should worry his campaign.  Even if his support in the Jewish community in America has eroded by only half that much, he may have trouble clearing the 60% mark.  An interesting historical note: for almost a century, every Republican candidate who received 30% or more of the Jewish vote was victorious–and it looks like Romney will win well over 30%.

Third, the total vote from Israel–80,000 ballots–is huge.  That’s about 25% of all ballots cast from all expat communities combined, which together have 20 times as many Americans as Israel has.  It also represents 50% of eligible voters in Israel, a participation rate fully ten times that of Americans in the rest of the world.  That’s an incredible rate considering the cumbersome process of registration and absentee ballot application and mailing faced by each individual Israel-based voter.  It’s also more than double the number of ballots ever cast before from Israel.

That suggests that the Israel-based voters–who overwhelmingly voted Romney–were unusually highly motivated to vote.  Compare that to the 5% participation rate in the rest of the world–voters who lean towards Obama–and quite a contrast emerges between the relative levels of motivation to vote between supporters of each candidate.  This appears to be an extreme example something U.S. polls now show: higher motivation to vote corresponds to higher likelihood of voting for Romney.  And motivation correlates with turnout.  That is a doubly good sign for Republicans.

More @ The Times of Israel