Saturday, August 6, 2011

China downgrades America to A with negative outlook

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The line jumped out at me from a recent CMC Markets morning note:

"China's credit rating agency Dagong downgraded the U.S. to A from A+ with a negative outlook, citing the increased debt limit and questions over creditor protection in the current political and economic environment."

America, you've been Dagonged. Here's the Daily Mail story.

The move "suggests that China may be getting more concerned about its U.S. exposure and that it may be stuck holding the bag should another financial or political crisis flare up," according to CMC Markets analyst Colin Cieszynski. China's problems have been well-documented -- including, depending on whom you talk to, a residential real estate bubble, rising inflation and questionable corporate governance. But the Asian powerhouse is also the top foreign holder of U.S. debt. That would be the debt that narrowly escaped getting downgraded by American ratings agencies in the wake of the theatrical U.S. debt ceiling fiasco.

So China has a direct stake in what happens south of the border, just as the rest of the world -- including Canada, increasingly -- has a direct stake in China's economy. Some commentators contend that the Chinese economy is sailing along on a bubble inflated by cheap government money and real estate speculation -- sound familiar, Canada? But it's hard to argue that in a world where the power balance is shifting from west to east, China's economic clout is rising as quickly as America's is falling.

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